In the near future Moscow may radically change its attitude to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as it is advantageous for the Kremlin to acquire a loyal ally on integration projects in the face of Azerbaijan.
One of the most important national interests of Russia is the creation of such integration projects, which will include the most important countries in the region. But due to lack of a better choice, Moscow earlier invited its ally in the South Caucasus, Armenia, to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which isn’t able to bring any benefit other than a political one to this association.
Armenia’s fading economy is not a bargain for the EEU, but a very large burden, which will inevitably pull this project to the bottom.
Against the backdrop of increasingly deteriorating economic situation in Armenia and constantly strengthening relations between Moscow and Baku, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov made a statement, which should become an important message for the Kremlin.
In an interview with “Russia 24” TV channel, the minister said that Azerbaijan does not exclude the theoretical possibility of its accession to the EEU. But the head of the foreign ministry went on to add that this will become possible only after Armenia withdraws its troops from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, as Baku will never be in the same league with the aggressor country.
Baku’s position regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is clear, and it was clearly defined from the rostrum of the UN General Assembly Oct.1.
“However, if the negotiations fail to bring as an outcome the complete and unconditional withdrawal of the armed forces of Armenia from our occupied lands, Azerbaijan will be compelled to use its inherent right of self-defense guaranteed under Article 51 of the UN Charter to ensure the restoration of its sovereignty and territorial integrity within the internationally recognized borders,” Mammadyarov said.
It is interesting that the Russian side has once again demonstrated the changed vector regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict amid such a plain statement. CSTO Deputy Secretary General Valery Semerikov hinted during the exercises of the Collective Peacekeeping Forces in Armenia that he does not intend to be involved in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
While stating that Armenia is fully capable of coping with the threats itself, Semerikov tried to tell the Armenian generals that the aggravation of the situation is a problem of only Armenia, rather than the bloc.
All these nuances are unfavorable for Yerevan. Russia is interested in Azerbaijan’s joining its integration projects as it has one of the strongest economies in the region. Moreover, the country is also ready to develop the mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia in the future. And, perhaps, for the sake of this, the Kremlin will finally move the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict off dead center. Moreover, this action will help restore justice and assign a peacekeeper status to Moscow. In this situation, this will be also a useful diplomatic bonus for the Kremlin.
Edited by CN
Elmira Tariverdiyeva is the head of Trend Agency’s Russian News Service
Trend